The clamour for change is a recurring decimal in Nigerian politics, a function of the state of the nation, which could be a stimulus for political action. Besides the clamours in the ‘70s and after which culminated in the Fourth Republic, less than two decades later, there was a peaceful transfer of power in Africa’s largest democracy. That was in 2015, a year of democratic earthquake, when Nigeria’s change mandarins were set to give a human trajectory to Nigerian politics; a reproduction of 1975, another momentous year in which patriotic Generals were set to reinvent the nation.
But unlike the Generals who successfully reinvigorated the nation, the 2015 change apostles squandered almost a decade beating about the bush, wandering in the wilderness, engendering the need for another change in 2027. This isn’t unexpected, because besides the populist appeal of the change vehicle, it wasn’t anchored on any strong trajectory (reformist or revolutionary).
An ossified polity (democratic, monarchical or totalitarian) could facilitate a progressive or retrogressive change. Unfortunately, for Nigerian change seekers, they were sold a dummy of change. Some of the apostles of change transformed themselves into political monsters, subversive of the change mantra which brought them to power. This transformation underscores the callous indifference of the APC rulers to the existential plight of Nigerians.
Unfortunately for the change mandarins (former PMB and PBAT), the scary state of the nation which made change inevitable in 2015, has been reproduced, making another change imperative in 2027. Since the need for change hovers over the nation, what could produce a political change substantially different from that of 2015? The 2015 change debacle was a status quo garbed with pretentious democratic populism; a realignment of the same political actors from one platform to another; recycling old wine in a new bottle, which was essentially a two-person political partnership, with the clueless sermonising partner exorcising the movement of its prebendal attributes, whilst the cunning partner, in alliance with disgruntled politicians from other divides, were to provide it with a sound political anchorage, canalising it into a force to redeem a troubled nation.
The 2015 political change was dead on arrival due to its shortcomings which included: 1. It was bereft of a sound ideological basis (secular or theocratic), the type which propelled progressive changes in other countries; 2. As an offshoot of the ancient regime, the change party couldn’t have departed from the inherited business as usual trajectory of its forebears; 3. Superintended by democratic despots, unamenable to other viewpoints; 4. Danced to the tune of external stakeholders who determine the nature and direction of change; 5. Criminalising any interrogation of derailment from the change trajectory; and violating values such as freedom and justice; 6. Disaggregating the nation into victims and winners; and disproportionately apportioning the burdens and benefits of change between them.
With subsidy gone; disorienting stagflation; cronyism in government, and the highest disproportionate deployment of scarce funds for the comfort of rulers, conflated with a widening poverty threshold in the nation, Nigerians belatedly realised that the pre 2015 era was an Eldorado of sorts. Should the Tinubu regime continue with its damn-the people policies, the change momentum of 2015 would be a child’s play compared to 2027.
The lessons from 2015 and 2023 are that: disjointed opposition parties can hardly wrestle power from an incumbent party in Nigeria, and a clueless president, or one with an international or corporate baggage, can’t execute a change agenda, to please Nigerians, whilst displeasing Washington and the multilateral institutions it controls.
But are the opposition parties ready to wrestle power from the APC in 2027?
Before and after the 2023 presidential election, the leading opposition party, the PDP, has been run by clueless leaders, whose political miscalculation to by all means retain Rivers State under its control, incapacitated it to decisively deal with the Wike matter. By the time the party recovers from the Wike shocks, it would have lost alot of steam as the leading opposition party.
An additional tragedy for the PDP is that it lost the recent Edo State gubernatorial election. And the internal wrangling within the Labour Party, and signals from Mr Peter Obi, that he wouldn’t be a vice presidential material; and the disparaging remark of Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso that PDP is dead, underscore the fractiousness and fragility of the opposition, and the difficulties of forging a united front against the APC in 2027.
For a political change to resonate with Nigerians, it has to be either revolutionary or theocratic. Whilst the multi religious nature of the nation precludes a theocratic political change, leaving revolutionary change as the only option. But those averse to Marxist politics would frown at any revolutionary change in the nation. But without being Marxist, a transparent reform model, which fights corruption, eliminates the wastes and impunity of the ruling elites, and uplifts the people from poverty, and undermines the neoliberal order, could be regarded as highly revolutionary in a prebendal nation such as Nigeria.
A transparent reform model could only be executed by a party or coalition of parties unafraid of a head on collision with the global hegemonists and the multilateral institutions they control. Such parties could only be revolutionary. Could any of the leading opposition parties, individually or in a merger execute a change agenda which undermines the neoliberal order in Nigeria?
There isn’t anything to suggest that without an ideological reengineering of the major opposition parties, none of them could hardly plunge into a conflict with the global hegemonists and their institutions. Both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi during the last presidential campaigns revealed their subservience to the neoliberal establishment by promising to abolish subsidy. Nigerians desperately need a change, and they would welcome any change mandarin, whether an Ayatollah or a Stalin with a change model to rescue them from the impunity of the ruling classes in Nigeria.
Jahun, a commentator on public affairs, wrote from Dutse, Jigawa State. He can be reached via aminuhabibu58@gmail.com
