There are indications that the forthcoming elections will be different, and the people are capable of being that difference, despite the signs of tension and apprehension that continue to spread across the landscape. The tectonic shifts in the interests of voters in the country and the issues stimulating those interests could be that difference. Political actors are anxious but appear determined to do everything within their powers to disrupt the imminent change, so that things go their way. For the first time in the history of elections in Nigeria, the political elite seem to be in disarray, as they do not appear to have coalesced sufficiently around a collective interest. The rising temperature of identity politics, the visible entry of new actors, and the resolve of the young people to ensure that their votes count do not seem to be going down well with the traditional actors. In a cacophony of voices, they have continued to disagree among themselves, throwing verbal missiles at one another and hatching multiple conspiracy theories. From alleged sabotage from within their ranks to rumours of coups, concerns about the postponement of the general elections and the unlikely detour to an interim government. The polity appears heated up almost to a boiling point. Amidst the emerging issues, three of them stand out.
Incidences of Violence May Be Used To Suppress Voter Turnout
Spreading insecurity has been a constant feature of the current administration in Nigeria and this could derail the polls. In all parts of Nigeria, security challenges continue to spread widely. It is, therefore, easy to predict that politicians will like to suppress voter turnout through sponsored violence. In some cities like Lagos, known thugs and gang leaders openly identify with specific political groups. In some cases, traditional rulers who ought to be non-partisan have openly expressed support for particular political parties. Others have subtly threatened attacks on residents who do not vote in certain directions. For instance, sporadic violence has already started happening in some parts of the South-East where unknown gunmen are rampaging to stop people from participating in the elections but rather to heed the calls for secession. Nigerian politicians are good at stoking tribal and religious fires to fuel their political ends. But this one has reached an entirely different level to become an open political strategy. Some states like Anambra, Imo, Rivers and Bornu are already flashpoints of electoral violence, and these may impact the likely turnout. Many local governments in the Northern part of the country are currently under the reign of terrorists and bandits. It is unclear if the electoral umpire will risk personnel and materials in these disputed areas and whether the votes will be valid in these places.
Technological Glitches May Produce Unintended Consequences
The electronic transmission of votes through the Bimodal Voter Accreditation Scheme (BVAS) has been widely acknowledged as one of the efforts to reduce manipulation between the polling units and the collation centres. However, the technology is novel and not yet fully understood by the electorate. Although the BVAS has been experimented with in elections in Osun and Anambra States, many voters, especially in local communities, need to familiarise themselves with it and may have challenges about what constitutes the correct use of BVAS. Furthermore, there are indications that poor Internet connection could affect its functionality in rural areas, and no one is sure if any feasible alternative has been envisaged. Mercantile agents could be used to disrupt the results in order to falsify them.
The Double-edged Sword of Unavailability of Cash and Fuel Scarcity
There will be massive vote buying in the forthcoming elections. The scale may differ, and the required amount of money may increase. The well-intended efforts to re-design the currency may reduce it but will not eliminate it. Instead, it could become counterproductive in some instances. With the intensifying fuel shortages and limited availability of new notes, citizens are becoming hungry and angry. Some may end up selling their votes as a result of desperation. Riots have already erupted in Rivers, Ogun, Lagos and Oyo States, leading to the destruction of banking facilities. Furthermore, the negative responses and finger-pointing from many highly placed politicians, especially within the ruling party, indicate that they would likely adopt more innovative strategies to induce voters.
Hands of Judicial Capture Now Visible
The existence of an independent judiciary is an essential factor in the health of a democracy that many analysts tend to omit. Justice remains the casualty and technicality has become the convenient jargon. Recent pronouncements, especially from the Supreme Court, do not indicate a sector that can be expected to be neutral or fair in adjudicating on election matters. Rather it appears to point towards controversial and often partisan interests. Making judgment available to the highest bidder, often beyond the reach of ordinary people, remains one of the biggest threats to Nigeria’s democracy. Punitive measures have become necessary but insufficient to whip erring members of the judiciary to order.
Could Free and Fair Elections Compensate for Buhari’s Numerous Failures?
Amidst multidirectional pressure, President Buhari appears adamant in facilitating the conduct of free and fair elections. Despite the low popularity of his party’s presidential candidate, he does not appear willing to grant him use of the incumbency factor in leveraging on the state’s architecture towards easier electoral victory. Many influential persons within the president’s party are very angry, and some have openly criticised him as a saboteur. The outgoing Nigeria president may be bent on ensuring that he delivers a clean election. It is likely that citizens who are pained by the consequences of his poor performance in the office are disposed to forgiving him if he allows the people’s voice to prevail in free and fair elections in the next few days and weeks.
Uche Igwe is a Senior Political Economy Analyst and Visiting Fellow at Firoz Lalji Institute for Africa at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). He can be reached through [email protected]